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How Does Trend Prediction In Analytics Work?

If you go on either the application/publication trend graph there is the option of trend prediction above the graph:

If you check the box corresponding to it there will then be a prediction of how many patents will have been applied for/published for last year and this year. The reason why we don't have full information for these two years is because patent applications tend to take a number of months to become public, often around 12-18 months. Once you have done this you will get something like the image below:

The way that the prediction line is generated is by the Phase-Average Trend Method which was constructed by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The key considerations of this are:

  • Estimation and extrapolation of the long-term trend.
  • Calculations of deviations from the moving average trend.
  • Correction for extreme values.
  • Identification of turning points and cyclical phases.

More information about this method can be found here:

https://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/41520591.pdf


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